ASX 2024 Wrap & 2025 Outlook: RBA Pivot in Focus

20 December 2024

Global stock markets have performed solidly overall in 2024 as the American economy continued to run smoothly, and investors began anticipating a global interest rate-cutting cycle, which has begun playing out across many economies, albeit not in Australia just yet due to stubborn inflation. The Australian economy has proved resilient in an aggressive rate-hiking cycle, but headline GDP figures were bolstered by immigration and elevated government spending, masking a GDP per capita recession. Still, stocks have climbed, and the benchmark ASX 200 set new record highs during the year despite having pulled back slightly over the past two weeks.

As of 17 December 2024, the ASX200 was up approximately 9.5% year-to-date, although there have been wide divergences in the performance at the sector level, which we dive into more detail about later.

The key question on every investor’s mind heading into 2025 is when the RBA will begin its pivot. We believe there is a g...