Beyond the Noise

- 11 February 2026

- AI capex plans have crossed a threshold where even strong earnings no longer offset valuation and return-on-investment concerns. Nasdaq and SaaS names sold off sharply as AI disruption and capex intensity forced valuation reassessment.
- Cross-asset divergence widened, with Japan and select value markets outperforming.
- US labour-market data is deteriorating at the margin.
- Central bank divergence is increasing, with Australia turning more hawkish while the BoE moves closer to easing. The RBA resumed hiking, signalling inflation persistence and raising the probability of at least one further increase. The ECB remains firmly on hold with no near-term shift expected.
- Precious metals volatility is being driven by leverage, margin mechanics and speculative pockets, not a breakdown in structural demand. Central-bank-driven demand for gold remains intact and dominant. We see this as anchoring a multi-year bull case.
- The US dollar rebou...