Reprieve

- 12 June 2026

- The Strait of Hormuz may be about to reopen. Oil fell, gold surged, bonds rallied, and equities ran. Four asset classes, one trade, one day. We explain what’s been priced in, what hasn’t, and what the second half looks like from here.
- Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson was in Sydney this week. He made a call that cuts across portfolios. We heard him and many others directly – and we have a view on where they are right, and where they have stopped short.
- There is a number in the oil market that, if broken, removes the last argument for higher interest rates. It’s closer than most investors realise.
- Gold had its worst week in months, then a strong rebound. The pattern that formed on the chart has a name and a track record. We explain.
- All four major Australian banks fell on Thursday. A record short position now overhangs the sector. Has the crowd got it wrong?
- This week’s report spotlight covers Downer...